The Case for Personalized Protections in Outer Space Disaster Risk Reduction Law
On 15 December 2022 (late on 14 December 2022 US East Coast time), it was reported that the Soyuz MS-22 capsule that is currently attached to the International Space Station (ISS) is losing coolant. According to space.com, a leading expert on space safety, Tommaso Sgobba, who used to be in charge of spaceflight safety for the European Space Agency (ESA) and who serves as president of the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS), has concluded that the substance that emerges from the Soyuz capsule is ammonia. He has drawn this conclusion based on the appearance of the leaked substance and the fact that a planned spacewalk had been cancelled, likely in order to prevent toxic ammonia from entering the ISS. He has concluded that the Soyuz is no longer flightworthy. This means that for the first time in the history of the ISS there is no way to evacuate the entire ISS crew at once. Because using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon module requires tailor-made space suits, the Crew Dragon currently docked to the ISS can only be used to return its original crew of four, as was reported by the space portal space.com. In the event of an emergency, the three spacefarers who arrived on board the ISS with the now-damaged Soyuz would be stranded. As space.com reports, Roscosmos stated on 16 December 2022 that there is an issue with the Soyuz, but did not state whether the capsule is still capable of returning to Earth safely.
It is essential to understand what is happening to the Soyuz and, if possible, to fix the spacecraft. At the moment, it seems unlikely that this is possible, at least not without significant risk to all crewmembers on board the ISS. Lessons need to be learned from this incident to ensure that the same problem will not repeat itself in the future.
It is an important development that private operators contribute to crewed space flight and in theory, having more systems can lead to redundancies and more safety. However, in order for a lifeboat to be meaningful, it also has to be accessible. Future spacecraft will have to be designed with more users and use cases in mind. This will include not only compatibility with multiple spacesuit systems but also technical options to safely transport injured spacefarers.
Human-centred interoperability is a disaster risk reduction issue. In addition to common standards that allow for the docking of spacecraft, communication between spacecraft etc., there is a clear need for enhanced safety standards in outer space. Going to space remains inherently dangerous. But the same can be said of going to sea and for a big part of human history the risk assessment of going to sea was similar to that of crewed space travel today: it is dangerous but with a lot of technical expertise and professional conduct it works well most of the time, but if things go wrong, they go wrong very dramatically and the survival chances are minimal. At sea, for over a century the international community has worked together to create international safety standards. Today, these standards apply to ships all over the world and they are enforced by the states where ships are registered. Thanks to technical developments that have been facilitated through this international regulation, working on ships and travelling at sea have become significantly safer in recent generations. If humankind wants to continue operating in outer space in the long run, it will be necessary to build on this experience and create more safety rules for outer space. Space operations will remain dangerous (and for many, that will be part of their appeal), but it would be imprudent to not learn from earlier experiences elsewhere. In fact, especially states (but also non-state actors) that send their crews to space have a duty to care that is directly related to spacefarers’ human rights to life and health.
Right now, it is imperative to find a solution to the problem at hand. It has to be hoped that all crew members can return to Earth safely. In the long run, cooperation between state and non-state actors in outer space has to be improved in the interest of human safety and disaster risk reduction. If necessary, regulation will play a role in this.